3/16/2022
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byte0
I have been playing blackjack online at Bovada since the Bodog days (in the US). Being a software architect and developer for 20+ years I definitely have an intersecting interest in the game of blackjack and the coding that goes behind it. These games are supposedly certified by Gaming Associates using a pRNG, and Bovada will tell you it is completely fair using a normal sample size of 10,000+ hands. I have been accumulating my hand history for about a year and have close to 100,000 hands to evaluate. I can tell you while the hand %'s are on the money 44%win, 8%push, 48%loss, there are other statistics such as streaks, dealer dealt cards vs player dealt cards, drawing on 6 showing, and doubling that are certainly questionable. One most recent incident was a 485 hand session where I never won more than 1 hand in a row.
1. I know Wizard of Odds said he personally certified the Blackjack at Bodog/Bovada to be fair, but is that just a win/loss percentage check after x hands?
2. Is the outcome of the hand predetermined by the pRNG? Meaning, it wouldn't matter how the hand is played if action is taken without busting, the winner is already known.
Seems to me you could pass the pRNG test for hands won/loss, but adjust or force outcomes on premium double down hands to make the blackjack 'handicapped' over long term.
Also:
- Yes I know this has been beaten to death, but I feel like analytically I am digging a little deeper here.
- Yes I play in land based casinos all the time and I realize online you are seeing many times over the number of hands you could see live.
- Yes I know it is not to Bovada's advantage to offer a game that is 'rigged'. However, it is definitely to their advantage to ensure their system cannot be beaten.
- Yes I know its a continuous shuffle, and card counting doesn't apply.
1. I know Wizard of Odds said he personally certified the Blackjack at Bodog/Bovada to be fair, but is that just a win/loss percentage check after x hands?
2. Is the outcome of the hand predetermined by the pRNG? Meaning, it wouldn't matter how the hand is played if action is taken without busting, the winner is already known.
Seems to me you could pass the pRNG test for hands won/loss, but adjust or force outcomes on premium double down hands to make the blackjack 'handicapped' over long term.
Also:
- Yes I know this has been beaten to death, but I feel like analytically I am digging a little deeper here.
- Yes I play in land based casinos all the time and I realize online you are seeing many times over the number of hands you could see live.
- Yes I know it is not to Bovada's advantage to offer a game that is 'rigged'. However, it is definitely to their advantage to ensure their system cannot be beaten.
- Yes I know its a continuous shuffle, and card counting doesn't apply.
Romes
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Hi byte, and welcome to the forum. I'm in development (almost 10 years) as well (as other on here are). You seem to have fair points and questions, but what I can tell you now is it's going to come down to the data.
First, you'll need to post your data so that it can be analyzed and real numbers tests, such as what you're saying with the streaks/etc can be determined.
Next, your data will be questioned unless it's a video log of your screen while you play. People with grievances or whatever could/would fudge some of the numbers and possibly give bovada a scare, reputation hit, or whatever.
After getting a large, untamperable, sampling size then the real math can be worked on and proven/disproved. Until then I can agree with you all day but it won't actually account for much or mean anything unfortunately =/. You do seem like you have a fairly good idea of things too.
First, you'll need to post your data so that it can be analyzed and real numbers tests, such as what you're saying with the streaks/etc can be determined.
Next, your data will be questioned unless it's a video log of your screen while you play. People with grievances or whatever could/would fudge some of the numbers and possibly give bovada a scare, reputation hit, or whatever.
After getting a large, untamperable, sampling size then the real math can be worked on and proven/disproved. Until then I can agree with you all day but it won't actually account for much or mean anything unfortunately =/. You do seem like you have a fairly good idea of things too.
beachbumbabs
Administrator
Hi, byte, and welcome to the forum. In the past, the Wizard has had to have hand logs to analyze, (which you have), and specific contentions to test against (which you kind of list; up to him the level of specificity he needs). He may answer your questions as to how the software works, or it may be proprietary to Bovada, I don't know. Seems like you might send him a Private Message (the envelope on the toolbar above) with a link to this thread (paste it in the message) asking him to take a look. He reads many things on here, but not everything, and I think he'd want to see this. (Please keep in mind, I don't speak for him; I just wanted to acknowledge your post.)Administrator
A couple of random thoughts. If the win/loss/tie percentage is right on expectation, I'm not sure how much interest there would be in the journey, as far as crunching the numbers/labor cost. However, there have been member requests before for large data files of hands from a consistent source, and it might be very much appreciated if you shared yours. Hold off on doing that for the moment, though; it's just a thought.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Romes
One thing I thought would be interesting is what if they made the win/loss %'s correct, but as the OP said the streaks are horrific (in both directions) so that you have losing streaks you simply can't sustain. That would keep the %'s correct but still be a 'rigged' game.
MichaelBluejay
Is the outcome of the hand predetermined by the pRNG?
No. What's random is how the cards are drawn. Depending on how it's programmed, either the entire virtual deck is shuffled randomly and then the cards are drawn off the top (which is CPU-intensive), or the cards are drawn randomly from an unshelled deck (which is much faster and simpler, and how I do it when I program simulations).
Last edited by: MichaelBluejay on Jan 30, 2016
beachbumbabs
Administrator
Administrator
No. What's random is how the cards are drawn. Depending on how it's programmed, either the entire virtual deck is shuffled randomly and then the cards are drawn off the top (which is CPU-intensive), or the cards are drawn randomly from an unshelled deck (which is much faster and simpler, and how I do it when I program simulations).
What is an 'unshelled deck'?
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
HeyMrDJ
What is an 'unshelled deck'?
I think he means un-shuffled, imagine 13 cards in order (obv theres more than 13 in a deck), if the RNG picks 8 it equals an 8, 13 = K and so on.
In my programming I shuffle the deck and draw off the top, in theory its the same thing, but I like to mimic real life as much as possible.
Guess who peed in my Cheerios? Romes did...
OnceDear
Administrator
Administrator
One thing I thought would be interesting is what if they made the win/loss %'s correct, but as the OP said the streaks are horrific (in both directions) so that you have losing streaks you simply can't sustain. That would keep the %'s correct but still be a 'rigged' game.
It occurs to me that if the overall medium term win/lose ratio is correct, but that they bias it towards player losing on high value hands, then wouldn't they have to counter balance that by rigging to pay out a larger proportion of hands where stakes are low? Wouldn't that give small scale betters an advantage.
Or do they do like VW and only un-rig it for audits.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
AxelWolf
Whomever thinks this RTG BJ software is 100% random I have a +EV betting situation for you. 
Because we will probably never get in enough big bets to prove anything a side bet will have to do. I don't believe counting the % of winning hands VS losing hands is a valid test, especially flat betting small amounts.
I always had a significant amount of disproportional big bets lose. For instance. Lets say I'm playing .50 VP then suddenly I decide to play a $100 hand of BJ. You guessed it, I have NEVER won a hand doing that.
When betting small $1-$5 It seems to play 'normal' of course you eventually lose. Anytime I have ever played bigger bets I go on the most horrible runs ever.
You use YOUR money to play.
You play a series of $1 bets, at some point I'll ask you to jump your bet to $100+.
I'll make you a side bet (my bet is that you will lose) and give you odds for an amount that puts you at a 1.5% advantage on each hand.
Anyone can quit wherever they wish.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
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OnceDear
Administrator
Administrator
Whomever thinks this RTG BJ software is 100% random I have a +EV betting situation for you.
I'll make you a side bet (my bet is that you will lose) and give you odds for an amount that puts you at a 1.5% advantage on each hand.
Anyone can quit wherever they wish.
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You must be pretty convinced it's VERY gaffed to offer that wager. I'll pass.Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..